Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 18.605925 20.180014 21.910864 23.972070 26.382524 29.141431 32.581824
2024-10-06 16.100244 18.156368 20.578921 23.702863 27.718381 32.851809 40.180087
2024-10-13 14.441197 16.747184 19.605885 23.527735 28.980336 36.678361 49.248702
2024-10-20 13.084932 15.478167 18.556172 22.980645 29.527335 39.582813 58.201779
2024-10-27 12.525271 15.125287 18.602150 23.863201 32.228187 46.487431 77.884519
2024-11-03 11.745186 14.379628 17.996577 23.669370 33.175552 50.753704 95.823504
2024-11-10 11.168847 13.846598 17.613514 23.725627 34.511131 56.222281 122.802484
2024-11-17 10.704553 13.422239 17.331225 23.878759 36.026957 62.721110 163.995526
2024-11-24 10.289831 13.030389 17.050186 23.978969 37.450150 69.740271 226.962095
2024-12-01 9.845222 12.560226 16.601982 23.724223 38.095934 75.158104 307.296429
2024-12-08 9.506033 12.221167 16.326152 23.731531 39.293484 82.960169 476.379422
2024-12-15 9.157382 11.844961 15.958783 23.522600 39.963588 89.657168 776.171596
2024-12-22 8.817115 11.467039 15.568412 23.240846 40.450297 96.398639 1519.625237
2024-12-29 8.519307 11.138531 15.236564 23.035181 41.093523 104.557769 5743.247460
2025-01-05 8.256687 10.850547 14.951867 22.889373 41.867764 114.339667 NaN
2025-01-12 7.951102 10.480810 14.505933 22.375556 41.565670 118.878266 NaN
2025-01-19 7.894085 10.498148 14.718546 23.222759 45.245157 151.213026 NaN
2025-01-26 7.677029 10.249485 14.452923 23.039255 45.906330 166.453680 NaN
2025-02-02 7.510725 10.074671 14.305798 23.093723 47.330729 191.828087 NaN
2025-02-09 7.368370 9.931902 14.206054 23.240337 49.116897 227.751478 NaN
2025-02-16 7.227442 9.785037 14.089461 23.336200 50.787619 272.078820 NaN
2025-02-23 7.049059 9.569378 13.835600 23.092871 51.207231 303.751210 NaN
2025-03-02 6.913659 9.419767 13.695079 23.099878 52.577211 365.154010 NaN